Carbon Pool Dynamics in the Lower Fraser Basin from 1827 to 1990

/ To understand the total impact of humans on the carbon cycle, themodeling and quantifying of the transfer of carbon from terrestrial pools tothe atmosphere is becoming more critical. Using previously published data,this research sought to assess the change in carbon pools caused by humans inthe Lower Fraser Basin (LFB) in British Columbia, Canada, since 1827 anddefine the long-term, regional contribution of carbon to the atmosphere. Theresults indicate that there has been a transfer of 270 Mt of carbon frombiomass pools in the LFB to other pools, primarily the atmosphere. The majorlosses of biomass carbon have been from logged forests (42%), wetlands(14%), and soils (43%). Approximately 48% of the forestbiomass, almost 20% of the carbon of the LFB, lies within old-growthforest, which covers only 19% of the study area. Landfills are nowbecoming a major sink of carbon, containing 5% of the biomass carbonin the LFB, while biomass carbon in buildings, urban vegetation, mammals, andagriculture is negligible. Approximately 26% of logged forest biomasswould still be in a terrestrial biomass pool, leaving 238 Mt of carbon thathas been released to the atmosphere. On an area basis, this is 29 times theaverage global emissions of carbon, providing an indication of the pastcontributions of developed countries such as Canada to global warming andpossible contributions from further clearing of rainforest in both tropicaland temperate regions.KEY WORDS: Carbon pools; Global warming; Carbon release to atmosphere;Greenhouse effect     

Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration

The significance of technical data, as well as the significance of system boundary choices, when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing on global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology, the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology, as well as the importance of the recycling rate was studied. Furthermore, the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass, in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling, the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important, but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper substitution with incineration including energy substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper, from a life cycle point of view, is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However, the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration, thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate, it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling, for paper and other recyclable materials.     

Baseline assessment for environmental services payments from satellite imagery: a case study from Costa Rica and Mexico

In this study we evaluate the accuracy of four global and regional forest cover assessments (MODIS, IGBP, GLC2000, PROARCA) as tools for baseline estimation. We conduct this research at the national scale for Costa Rica and for two tropical dry forest study sites in Costa Rica (Santa Rosa) and Mexico (Chamela-Cuixmala). We found that at the national level, the total forest cover accuracy of the four land cover maps was inflated due to an overestimation of forest in areas with an evergreen canopy. However, the four maps greatly underestimated the extent of the deciduous forest (dry forest); an ecosystem that faces high deforestation pressure and poses complications to the mapping of its extent from remotely sensed data. For the tropical dry forest sites, all maps have low forest cover accuracies (mean for Santa Rosa: 27%; mean for Chamela-Cuixmala: 56%). This has implications for policy implementation.     

The greenhouse gas balance of the Province of Siena

There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore, we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines, as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions, even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect, we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities, where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions, seven with low positive emissions, 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities.     

A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.     

Deliberative democracy meets democratised science: a deliberative systems approach to global environmental governance

The main achievements of the debates on deliberative democracy and democratised science are investigated in order to analyse the reasons, meanings and prospects for a democratisation of global environmental policy. A deliberative systems approach, which emphasises the need to explore how processes in societal spheres interact to shape the deliberative qualities of the system as a whole, is adopted. Although science plays a key role in this, its potential to enhance deliberative capacity has hardly been addressed in deliberative theories. The democratisation of science has potential to contribute to the democratisation of global environmental policy, in that it also shapes the potential of deliberative arrangements in the policy sphere. Deliberative arrangements within the policy sphere may stimulate the democratisation of science to different degrees.     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

Use of Airborne Thermal Imagery to Detect and Monitor Inshore Oil Spill Residues During Darkness Hours

/ Trials were conducted using an airborne video system operating in the visible, near-infrared, and thermal wavelengths to detect two known oil spill releases during darkness at a distance of 10 nautical miles from the shore in St. Vincent's Gulf, South Australia. The oil spills consisted of two 20-liter samples released at 2-h intervals, one sample consisted of paraffinic neutral material and the other of automotive diesel oil. A tracking buoy was sent overboard in conjunction with the release of sample 1, and its movement monitored by satellite relay. Both oil residues were overflown by a light aircraft equipped with thermal, visible, and infrared imagers at a period of approximately 1 h after the release of the second oil residue. Trajectories of the oil residue releases were also modeled and the results compared to those obtained by the airborne video and the tracking buoy. Airborne imagery in the thermal wavelengths successfully located and mapped both oil residue samples during nighttime conditions. Results from the trial suggest that the most advantageous technique would be the combined use of the tracking beacon to obtain an approximate location of the oil spill and the airborne imagery to ascertain its extent and characteristics.KEY WORDS: Airborne video; Thermal imagery; Global positioning; Oil-spill monitoring; Tracking beacon     

全球变化对跨境淡水资源利用和管理的影响

跨境淡水资源的合理利用和协调管理,已成为当今国际区域经济发展、跨境资源和市场共享、世界生态维护的合作主题,成为下世纪制约区域可持续发展和避免地区冲突的一个关键因素,受到国际社会广泛关注。从边界变化、国际区域合作和经济一体化、气候变化、人口增长、可持续发展等全球趋势对此主题的影响进行了探讨。     

Linking Russia with the European and global greenhouse gas emissions trading markets: three paths for greening the Russian assigned amount under the Kyoto Protocol

This article examines possibilities for linkage between the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and Russia, with a view to enhancing cooperation on a broader scale than the project-based approaches that have been tested thus far. Three paths for possible EU-Russia linkage are presented by which the Russian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol can be greened in order to stimulate emissions trading: 1. Joint implementation—reductions earned via individual projects in Russia; 2. Greened allowances or green investment schemes; and 3. Linked cap-and-trade systems, in which a Russian domestic emissions trading system would link with the European Union Emissions Trading System. The authors conclude that the third option, emissions trading through linked domestic emissions trading systems, offers the best opportunities at the lowest transaction costs. The authors discuss useful innovative instruments like call options and slip level arrangements on government-to-government and business-to-business levels.